ScienceProblem: STPSolarEventCoincidence

PrimaryActor:

Astronomer

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ScienceGoal:

Identify models that use solar data to predict STP events with the greatest accuracy. This information can be used to advise the telecommunications and power industries of geomagnetic disturbances.

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DataSets:

SOHO, Yokhoh, Cluster

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ProblemDescription:

Solar events such as flares, CME's, and the progression of the solar cycle can cause electromagnetic disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere [1]. Such disturbances can disrupt the telecommunications and power industries. Satellites, radio and television broadcasts, and mobile telephones all experience service interuptions during periods of high solar activity. In addition, power grids across the world are affected by extra activity during solar cycle peaks. Transformer failure, voltage collapse, and equipment malfunction can be triggered by geomagnetic storms (such as the 1989 storm that caused the Hydro Quebec blackout) [2]. Advance warning of geomagnetic activity caused by solar activity allows telecommunication and power services to be suspended or diverted gracefully.

Several existing models take solar activity parameters (i.e., time, duration, location, and intensity of events) as input and predict the resulting STP events that will occur in the Earth's magnetosphere. The solar models, solar datasets used as input, and STP datasets used to verify output predictions, are not accessible from a single interface. Models include the Relativistic Electron Forecast [3] and Wang Sheeley [4] models from NOAA, and the Gopalswamy et al's Empirical CME Arrival Model [5].

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CurrentSolution:

Currently, the code for most solar models predicting STP events must be downloaded and run on a user's local machines, or they must be acquired on tape, disk or other medium from an institute like NASA [6]. The solar datasets used as input, along with the STP event datasets used to verify model predictions, must be acquired from several different data archives rather than one interface.

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VOSolution:

A selection of these models can be made available as Astrogrid web services. An individual model can be tested with several solar datasets to compare modelled predictions with actual STP datasets during different stages of solar activity . Also, one solar dataset may be chosen as an input to several models in order to ascertain which model mostly closely predicts STP events during a given time period.

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Iteration Breakdown:

• Astrogrid.Itn04STPSolarEventCoincidence - science workflow for case in Iteration 04
• Astrogrid.Itn06STPSolarEventCoincidence - science workflow for case in Iteration 06
• Astrogrid.Itn08STPSolarEventCoincidence - science workflow for case in Iteration 08

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KeyReferences:

[1] The Sun and Space Weather. By A. Hanslmeier, Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics and Meteorology, University of Graz, Austria. Astrophysics and Space Science Library, Vol. 277, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2002

[2] J. Kappenman, "Geomagnetic Storm Forecasting Mitigates Power System Impacts" IEEE Power Engineering Review, v 18, n 11, Nov 1998

[3] "Relativistic Electron Forecast Model", USAF and NOAA Space Environment Center, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/refm/ Viewed 24/09/02

[4] "Wang Sheeley Model", USAF and NOAA Space Environment Center, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ws/ Viewed 24/09/02

[5] Gopalswamy et al, AAS, SPD meeting #32, #02.83, 05/2000

[6] NSSDC Space Physics ModelWeb^?, http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/space/model/models_home.html. Viewed 24/09/02

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GoodStyle: Please add comments below. This area should be used for refinement of the above document. If you want to ask questions or start a dialogue with the author, please use (or create) a topic in the Use Cases Forum.
Author: Once the refinements here and comments in the forum die down, perhaps you could rewrite the problem, incorporating the comments and refinements.

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